2020 is an extraordinary year. The occurrence of global public health events has disrupted the normal operation track, and the melamine market has also been greatly affected, creating a historic record. In 2020, China's melamine market as a whole will fall first and then rise
From January to April, prices continued to fluctuate downward, reaching an all-time low. Before the Spring Festival, the market transactions basically stagnated. The market is optimistic about the market after the festival. The middlemen and end-users stock up the goods appropriately. The enterprises reduce the price slightly to collect money actively, and then the price smoothly transits to after the Spring Festival. After the festival, the market completely exceeded the market expectation. Due to the domestic public health events, the market basically stopped, the transportation was limited, the terminal was difficult to resume production, and the enterprises had a large amount of inventory backlog. Therefore, they sought to export to relieve some supply pressure, but the export volume was limited, the pull to the domestic trade market was limited, and the price was difficult to stop falling. Although the terminals have been back to work since March, the start-up is seriously limited, the domestic economic recovery is slow, and the outbreak of global public health events has seriously affected exports, the follow-up of orders is insufficient, the production load is reduced more, melamine is under pressure inside and outside, and the price is constantly reaching a record low. In late April, the factory price of melamine atmospheric pressure products in China was 4200-4300 yuan / ton, the lowest price in history.
From May to June, the market froze. After the price dropped to the lowest level in history, the profits of enterprises were compressed, and some enterprises producing melamine from urea even suffered losses. The willingness of manufacturers to continue to reduce prices was significantly weakened, the price gradually stabilized, and the domestic and foreign demand remained in the doldrums. Therefore, it was difficult to effectively support the market, and the low price continued to the end of June. Due to the gradual stabilization of prices, middlemen and end users also enter the market according to their own conditions, so the supply pressure of enterprises has been further eased.
From July to mid August, it rebounded strongly. After entering the summer, due to the high temperature and humidity and other factors, the operation of enterprises' devices is generally unstable. Since the beginning of July, some devices have been shut down for maintenance, and the low point has dropped to nearly 40%. The supply of goods in the market has been significantly reduced. However, enterprises have no pressure on production and marketing. Therefore, with the decrease of supply and in order to reduce the loss space, the price increase intention is gradually increasing. At first, the price of 50 yuan / ton is tentatively increased. However, most downstream enterprises hold the psychology of buying up but not buying down, and follow up to take the goods one after another. As a result, the supply of some enterprises becomes very tight, further boosting the price rise. The low operating load rate continued until the middle of August. After the middle of August, the parking devices were gradually restored, and the rising trend stopped abruptly. The downward channel was opened in late August.
From late August to early September, prices fell rapidly. With the gradual improvement of weather conditions and the recovery of parking devices, the operating load rate of enterprises rose to more than 60%, the shortage of goods gradually eased, and the downstream demand did not change. Therefore, the price continued to rise, lacking momentum, and then began to go down. The decline continued until the first ten days of September.
From mid September to October, the market rebounded rapidly again and then fell. In late September, some of the plants stopped in a centralized way again, and the operating load rate dropped from more than 60% to nearly 40%. In addition, as the double holiday approached, the lower reaches had a proper amount of goods to be prepared. The double benefits drove the price to rebound rapidly, but the duration was relatively short, which was mostly speculative. During the double holiday period, the parking equipment gradually recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm gradually slowed down, the pressure of enterprise production and marketing gradually increased, and the price slowly fell. The downstream demand has entered the "golden nine silver ten" consumption peak season. After the festival, the terminal start-up load gradually increased, the downstream actively took the goods, and the export inquiry also followed up. In addition, some of the devices were shut down for maintenance, and supply and demand came together. With the double positive boost, the price rebounded again. And the lower reaches still hold the psychology of buying up but not buying down. With the price rising, the enthusiasm for taking goods continues to heat up, the enterprises receive better money, the supply of goods continues to be tight, and the support for the rise continues to last until the last ten days. With the price rising to a high level, the downstream receiving attitude is slightly cautious, so the high-end transaction slows down in the last ten days. However, the supply of enterprises is still tight, some of them still have the mentality of price increase.
In the fourth quarter, the highest price of the year appeared. During the national day, some enterprises stopped for maintenance, the operating load rate gradually fell, the supply of goods decreased, and entered the traditional peak consumption season. The domestic and foreign downstream gradually increased the load production, the consumption increased significantly, and the supply and demand started to work together. In late October, the quotation of enterprises began to rise tentatively, and the downstream mostly held the psychology of buying up but not buying down, As a result, the enterprise's quotation rose sharply in early November. However, as the price rose to a higher level, the downstream resistance continued to increase and the volume of transactions decreased. In late November, the price began to decline. However, in autumn and winter, due to the continuous shortage of natural gas supply and rising prices, the cost of gas head enterprises is supported, and some of them are expected to stop parking, which leads to the forced rebound of the market. However, especially in the north, due to the long-term constraints of atmospheric control, the terminal starting load is limited, and the demand lacks effective support. Therefore, the market rebound is limited, and the price gradually stabilizes until the end of the month.
Future forecast
First, from the perspective of cost, Zhuo Chuang predicted that the average ex factory price of raw material urea in 2021 will be 1600-1850 yuan / ton, only in the spring fertilizer peak season, the price is likely to rise, and the market in other periods is weak as a whole, with the price between 1600-1800 yuan / ton. Theoretically, the production cost of melamine is 4800-5400 yuan / ton, which can support the cost of melamine;
Second, from the perspective of supply, there will still be new capacity release in 2021, and the supply of goods in the domestic market will continue to increase, which will continue to restrict the growth to a certain extent;
Thirdly, from the perspective of demand, the demand side in 2021 is expected to be better than that in 2020. Due to the impact of public health events, the global economic environment in 2021 will gradually recover. Therefore, the domestic and foreign downstream demand will also show an increasing trend, which is relatively optimistic compared with that in 2020. Therefore, the increase in supply will be offset to a certain extent. With the continuous development of new downstream industries, the downstream demand will increase The industrial chain will be extended gradually;
Fourth, from the perspective of export, the overall situation will be improved. With the gradual recovery of the global economic environment, the consumption will also increase moderately. At present, the domestic melamine price is low, and the price advantage will still become the first choice of international customers.
On the whole, the good news is more than the bad news, and most people in the industry have optimistic expectations. Therefore, Zhuo Chuang predicts that the market situation of melamine in China in 2021 will be better than that in 2020, and the focus of transaction will rise to a certain extent, and the annual average price is expected to be 5800-7500 yuan / ton.