Recent analysis of the melamine market

Since late October, the domestic melamine market has entered a downward channel. By early November, the price dropped to the low end of the second half of this year, with some enterprises trading about 7,300 yuan/ton. Under the support of cost, melamine enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, and some enterprises have the support of export orders, the low end of the early November price recovered slightly after weak stable operation. At present, domestic normal pressure mainstream factory 7,400-7,500 yuan/ton.


Overall, the recent domestic melamine market did not have a strong positive signal release:
Weak terminal demand

Domestic terminal factories started low, most of the large and medium-sized manufacturers due to long-term supply of fixed customer order volume reduction and inventory pressure increase, coupled with some small factories in the environmental inspection work stoppage, so in the weak market and environmental protection high pressure of the double negative impact, terminal demand for melamine is limited.


Supplies are plentiful

Due to the impact of peak shift maintenance and load reduction of some melamine devices, the domestic operating rate was slightly lower in November, and the low-end operating rate was about 56%. Although the rate of decline, but because the early production companies have a backlog of inventory, so a small decline in the start is not enough to support the price increase. Moreover, to the last week of this month, hubei huaqiang, hebei nine yuan two sets of equipment has resumed production and shipment, xinjiang heart to heart a set of equipment started, melamine operating rate rebounded to about 64%, the average daily output of more than 4,000 tons, the market supply of goods continue to increase.


To sum up, the domestic market of melamine is lack of positive news. Under the support of cost, the domestic market of melamine has limited room for price decline, but limited by weak domestic demand, weak price rise, and a stalemate operation. So how can this stalemate be broken? Small make up think, winter environmental protection will continue to check, domestic terminal demand is difficult to have substantial change. Demand is unlikely to rise, relying on reduced supply to boost the melamine market. In a short time, small-scale parking can not significantly boost the market, the concentration of large-scale maintenance is to break the melamine stalemate market powerful weapons